Another month has gone by in the Boise real estate world. Although I know things are really cooking for me personally as an agent, I always look forward to looking at the research to see what is actually going on in the housing market in Ada County. The numbers are out. Let’s review the findings.

Boise home sale have risen 13% vs. this month last year. In fact, September 2011 home sales are ahead of the same month sales for every month from 2007 through 2010. We saw the same results last month. It appears the sales volumes are indeed rising. In fact, pending Boise house sales are 23% ahead of September 2010.

Distressed home sales have overwhelmed Boise real estate for several years now. In fact, last December distressed sales (made up of total short sales + total bank-owned sales) represented 61% of all sales for the month. This month short sales make up 18% of total sales and bank-owned sales are 20% of all sales. In short, distressed sales have dropped from 61% to 38% in les than a year. Is the market absorbing the distressed properties? These numbers indicate the answer is yes.

So volume is up, but what about prices? This is probably a more interesting question to most homeowners in the Treasure Valley right now. The answer is a bit of a mixed bag. The median price of a resell home is $135,000 in Ada County. This is down 7% from last month; and down 13% from this same month last year. However, that is a 7% increase from January 2011. The median price last January (which happens to be our record low since the real estate bubble burst in 2006) was $126,000.

Home affordability has improved dramatically as well. In January 2005, it required 19% of a median Boise income to buy the median priced Boise home. In July of 2006, homes were at their most „unaffordable“ point. The median monthly home payment required nearly 30% of the median monthly income. This month–September 2011–was a new record for „most affordable“-11.6%. Boise homes have not been this affordable for nearly a decade.

What should we expect home prices to do? Prices may drop in the short run, but expect prices to begin rising soon. Why? Boise home inventory is down 33% from a year ago. This means that the net result of all the sales vs. all the new listings has resulted in a major reduction in the total number of homes available for sale in the Boise area. This „house shortage“ should eventually start to push home prices higher.

Over the past 60 months, new construction inventory has dropped for 45 months. There are currently 542 new construction homes available for sale vs. 1890 in September of 2006. Existing home inventory has dropped to 1785 from 2837 last year and 1859 last month. Three years ago, Boise had almost 4000 existing homes for sale.

Like any industry, home supply and home demand determine home prices. This month sales discounts remain relatively low. In September the difference between asking price and actual sales price averaged -3.2%. Last year at this time, it was 3.8%. Discounts were nearly triple those in recent years. The low discount levels indicate that buyer and seller expectations have reached a balance.

Have we hit rock bottom yet? Have prices stabilized? Should I buy now or keep waiting for yet lower prices? All indications seem to point toward a recovering market. Every year, Boise real estate is at its lowest point in the winter. Likewise, the market always picks up in the spring. If we can maintain the year over year improvements in inventory, home sales volume, and prices throughout the winter months, I will be ready to proclaim the Boise housing market a recovering market next spring. We’ll see what happens in the coming months.

Prospective home buyers and sellers, check out our site for tips on how to buy or sell Boise homes, today. You can also find information about a reputable Boise real estate broker, now.